Independent · Algorithmic · Actionable

SEWS SIGNAL

Bi-weekly macro intelligence for asset managers and family offices

20 Years of data tested
5 Market phases tracked
2× Monthly reports
0 Opinions. Pure data.
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Current Signal — April 2026

Data sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)

Investment Markets
🟢 ALL CLEAR
Drift score: 1.05  ·  As of April 2026

Markets are calm. No systemic stress detected. Hold or add positions.

World / Geopolitical
⚫ BREAKDOWN
Drift score: 4.59  ·  As of February 2026

Structural disruption. Rising trend. The world has not found its next stable form.

⚠ DIVERGENCE ACTIVE

Markets are calm. The world is not. This gap typically resolves one of two ways: the world stabilises (good) — or markets wake up (bad). The geopolitical drift score is rising: from 4.22 in November 2025 to 4.59 in February 2026. Watch for drift crossing 5.0.

The engine

No opinion. It reads the data and reports the phase.

SEWS Signal is powered by the Spectral Early Warning Score — a mathematical model built on a proven theorem in spectral mathematics. Unlike market commentary or news analysis, SEWS does not interpret events.

It measures the actual drift of key economic signals away from their mathematically defined balance points and classifies the result into one of five phases.

The engine has no opinion. This makes it consistent, repeatable, and free from the narrative bias that makes most macro commentary useless.

The balance law
Next = Now + Adds − Loss + Noise

When signals drift too far from their balance point, the system flags the phase change. The further the drift, the more critical the reading. The model tracks two independent engines — Investment Markets and the Geopolitical World — and reports them separately, so you can see when they diverge.

Data source

FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data. Publicly available. Always current. No proprietary feeds.

The five phases

Every report tells you which phase you are in — and what to do

🟢 ALL CLEAR

Signals close to normal. Hold or add positions.

🔵 RECOVERY

System was stressed but improving. Opportunity opening.

🟡 STRESS — IMPROVING

Some signals off, but narrowing. Watch for recovery.

🔴 STRESS — SPREADING

Stress is broadening. Reduce exposure, raise caution.

⚫ BREAKDOWN

Multiple signals far from normal. Patience required. Do not force moves.

20 years of historical data

The model has been tested against reality

These are the most significant signals SEWS produced when run against 20 years of real economic data.

When What SEWS Signal detected What followed
Sept 2021 World enters BREAKDOWN phase — geopolitical drift 4.0+ Ukraine invasion February 2022 — five months later. Global commodity shock. Fed hiking cycle begins March 2022. Portfolio losses in bonds and growth equities.
July 2020 Recovery phase detected in investment engine Equity markets had bottomed in March 2020. SEWS identified the recovery structure early, giving a systematic signal to re-enter.
2007–2009 Investment engine escalated through stress phases. Peak drift: 10.76 (December 2008) Global Financial Crisis. Banks failed. S&P 500 lost more than 50% from peak to trough.
April 2025 Stress-spreading phase detected — investment engine Tariff shock hit markets. S&P 500 dropped more than 10% within weeks.
The September 2021 signal

The model entered BREAKDOWN phase fourteen months before most portfolio managers acknowledged structural risk. The Ukraine invasion in February 2022 deepened an existing breakdown rather than creating it — investors who acted on the September 2021 signal had months to prepare.

Every two weeks

What you receive with each report

📊

Current phase — both engines

Investment Markets and the Geopolitical World, scored and classified independently.

📖

Plain-English explanation

What each phase means and what action it implies. No jargon. No hedging.

🔔

Phase change alert

Flagged immediately if either engine has moved since the last report.

⚠️

Divergence warning

When markets are calm but the world is not — or the reverse. The gap that matters most.

📈

Six-month history

Trend at a glance for each engine. See direction, not just position.

🔗

Live FRED data

Every report drawn from current Federal Reserve Economic Data. Nothing stale.

Subscription

Clear pricing. No lock-in.

€490 / month

Billed monthly  ·  Cancel anytime  ·  No minimum term

  • Two reports per month — 1st and 15th
  • Investment Markets phase + Geopolitical phase
  • Divergence warning when active
  • Phase change alerts
  • Six-month trend history
  • PDF delivered directly to your inbox
  • Available in English and German

Questions? Email us at sews@maat-feather.com

The divergence is active right now.

Markets are calm. The geopolitical drift score is 4.59 and rising. This is exactly the condition SEWS was built to detect — before the gap closes.

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