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September 2021 — SEWS entered BREAKDOWN phase for the geopolitical world. Ukraine was invaded in February 2022 — five months later. The commodity shock, the Fed hiking cycle, and the bond losses all followed. SEWS did not predict the invasion. It detected that the structural conditions for a major disruption were already in place.
Investors who had the September 2021 signal had fourteen months to prepare. No opinion. No narrative. The data said BREAKDOWN — and it was.
Data sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)
Markets are calm. No systemic stress detected. Hold or add positions.
Structural disruption. Rising trend. The world has not found its next stable form.
Markets are calm. The world is not. This gap typically resolves one of two ways: the world stabilises (good) — or markets wake up (bad). The geopolitical drift score is rising: from 4.22 in November 2025 to 4.59 in February 2026. Watch for drift crossing 5.0.
SEWS Signal is powered by the Spectral Early Warning Score — a mathematical model built on a proven theorem in spectral mathematics. Unlike market commentary or news analysis, SEWS does not interpret events.
It measures the actual drift of key economic signals away from their mathematically defined balance points and classifies the result into one of five phases.
The engine has no opinion. This makes it consistent, repeatable, and free from the narrative bias that makes most macro commentary useless.
SEWS Signal is fully independent. No bank, no broker, no assets under management to protect. No advertiser, no sponsor, no conflict. The signal serves one interest: yours.
A third engine — the Koopman Early Warning tracker — runs alongside both. Where the drift score measures where the system is, the Koopman tracker measures where it is going. It detects structural momentum building in the system before it shows up in prices or conventional indicators.
When signals drift too far from their balance point, the system flags the phase change. The further the drift, the more critical the reading. The model tracks two independent engines — Investment Markets and the Geopolitical World — and reports them separately, so you can see when they diverge.
Data source: FRED — Federal Reserve Economic Data. Publicly available. Always current. No proprietary feeds.
Signals close to normal. Hold or add positions.
System was stressed but improving. Opportunity opening.
Some signals off, but narrowing. Watch for recovery.
Stress is broadening. Reduce exposure, raise caution.
Multiple signals far from normal. Patience required. Do not force moves.
The model has been tested against reality
| When | What SEWS Signal detected | What followed |
|---|---|---|
| Sept 2021 | World enters BREAKDOWN phase — geopolitical drift 4.0+ | Ukraine invasion February 2022 — five months later. Global commodity shock. Fed hiking cycle begins March 2022. Portfolio losses in bonds and growth equities. |
| July 2020 | Recovery phase detected in investment engine | Equity markets had bottomed in March 2020. SEWS identified the recovery structure early, giving a systematic signal to re-enter. |
| 2007–2009 | Investment engine escalated through stress phases. Peak drift: 10.76 (December 2008) | Global Financial Crisis. Banks failed. S&P 500 lost more than 50% from peak to trough. |
| April 2025 | Stress-spreading phase detected — investment engine | Tariff shock hit markets. S&P 500 dropped more than 10% within weeks. |
The September 2021 signal entered BREAKDOWN phase fourteen months before most portfolio managers acknowledged structural risk. The Ukraine invasion in February 2022 deepened an existing breakdown rather than creating it — investors who acted on the September 2021 signal had months to prepare.
Investment Markets, the Geopolitical World, and the Koopman Structural Dynamics tracker — scored and classified independently.
What each phase means and what action it implies. No jargon. No hedging.
Flagged immediately if any engine has moved since the last report.
When markets are calm but the world is not — or the reverse. The gap that matters most.
A third independent signal measuring how fast the system's dynamics are changing — not where it is, but where it is going.
Trend at a glance for each engine. See direction, not just position.
Every report drawn from current Federal Reserve Economic Data. Nothing stale.
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